Crash takes crazy Leclerc/Verstappen swing to over 100 points
Charles Leclerc’s crash in the French Grand Prix means errors and problems at Ferrari have now swung the 2022 Formula 1 title race more than 100 points in Max Verstappen’s favour
Charles Leclerc’s crash in the French Grand Prix means errors and problems at Ferrari have now swung the 2022 Formula 1 title race more than 100 points in Max Verstappen’s favour.
Leclerc spun from the lead at Paul Ricard and ended his race in the barrier, allowing Red Bull driver Verstappen to win unchallenged and extend his championship advantage to 63 points.
It continued an astonishing shift in momentum in the title fight since Leclerc led Verstappen by 46 points after the Australian Grand Prix.
Two errors from Leclerc (a spin at Imola and this crash in France), engine failures in Spain and Azerbaijan, strategic mistakes in Monaco and Britain, and a grid penalty in Canada have cost Leclerc somewhere in the region of 99-123 points.
How Leclerc has dropped points this season
| RACE | WHAT HAPPENED? |
| IMOLA | Spun while third, finished sixth. Seven points dropped. |
| SPAIN | Retired from a comfortable lead after an engine failure. A likely 25 points dropped. |
| MONACO | Led first stint but strategy error switching from wets on a drying track dropped him to third, then a misjudgement pitting both drivers at the same time cost him a podium. Cost Leclerc 13 points. |
| AZERBAIJAN | Retired from the lead after an engine failure. Lost 18-25 points depending on whether he’d have won. |
| CANADA | Started at the back after engine change grid penalty following various failures. Would have finished on the podium, so lost between five and 15 points. |
| BRITAIN | Took the lead after Verstappen damaged his car hitting debris but failed to finish on the podium after Ferrari opted not to pit him under a safety car. Another 13 points lost. |
| FRANCE | Spun into barriers while leading. Lost 18-25 points depending on whether he’d have won. |
It’s debatable exactly how much Leclerc has lost because the outcomes of his duels with Verstappen in Azerbaijan and France were far from settled and, had he not started from the back in Canada, we can only assume he’d have been somewhere on the podium.
However, that’s enough to create accurate higher and lower projections (in yellow below) for Leclerc. As you can see, any combination of these lost results would put him well clear of Verstappen in the points.
Leclerc has lost at least 99 points this season and as many as 123, depending on where you think he would have finished in Azerbaijan, Canada and France.
But we also need to factor in the points that Verstappen gained in those races – inheriting the win in Spain, third in Monaco, and potentially benefiting in Azerbaijan and France as well (although as previously mentioned we cannot know that for sure).
That has given him somewhere between 10 and 31 points from Leclerc’s problems. And it puts the swing in the region of 109-154 points from the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix onwards – an astonishing tally in just nine races.
So, instead of Leclerc controlling the championship, it is Verstappen who has, by his own admission, “a great lead” that’s bigger than it should be in terms of car performance.
Ferrari sympathisers will point to these numbers and say they are exaggerated because nobody is perfect and everybody drops points in a season. Verstappen is no exception.
He has dropped 55 points himself, losing second-place finishes in Bahrain and Australia because of car failures and a win in Britain after hitting debris and only finishing seventh because of the car damage he sustained.
But even in the most unrealistic scenario, imagining a perfect season for both teams, it is still Ferrari that has thrown away the most points.
This graph shows how many points Verstappen could have this season, and the upper/lower Leclerc estimates from the previous chart too. It’s an imprecise science because it doesn’t factor in how each of those theoretical mistake-free seasons would reduce the points of the opposition driver.
But it’s a useful exercise to show that, even once you factor in Verstappen’s misfortune, Leclerc should either be ahead or right behind. Not 63 points adrift.
Instead, the incredible season F1 could be having is purely a hypothetical one, and Ferrari’s profligacy is to blame.
No wonder this is something Red Bull is revelling in, having started the season on the back foot and – unlike Ferrari – spent time and money until late last year developing its 2021 car.
Red Bull team boss Christian Horner said: “If you’d have told me going into Christmas last year that with the biggest regulation change in 40 years, with the effort that we’d put into last year’s championship that we’d be sitting here with eight grand prix victories, two sprint race victories and leading both championships by 64 and 82 points respectively, that would have been beyond my wildest expectations.
“Considering we were probably the last team to fully transition onto this car, it’s been a phenomenal job.”
Ferrari cannot say the same about its own season given just how wasteful it has become. Leclerc says he will believe in this title until the end and count the points then.
But he’s admitted, “right now it doesn’t look great”. And that’s an understatement.
